Cubs mailbag: Are they serious about bringing back Cody Bellinger? What about Shohei Ohtani?

May 2024 · 9 minute read

Two names will dominate the headlines around the Chicago Cubs this offseason. Cody Bellinger is an obvious priority, given the way he’s carried the team back into playoff contention with an MVP-level performance. Shohei Ohtani is a once-in-a-lifetime talent, which makes his free agency even harder to forecast.

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Back when this rebuild started, the organization viewed 2024 as a likely breakthrough. Enough things have gone right that the Cubs are a legitimate postseason contender without huge contributions (so far) from the returns in the Yu Darvish deal and the sell-offs at the last two trade deadlines. The next moves will be critical.

The focus is on winning the next game and the series at hand, but Jed Hoyer’s front office is also in planning mode for the future. Bellinger, a Scott Boras client, certainly understands the stakes after signing a one-year, $17.5 million pillow contract. Money is no object for Ohtani, presumably, because he’s already a global superstar with all the leverage.

This Q&A (read part one here) is a refresher on how the Cubs got to this point and a guide to what’s ahead.

Have there been any internal discussions or whispers on the Cubs’ plans for Cody Bellinger this offseason? Obviously, fans would want him back and Jed Hoyer says the right things, but do you get any indications that they’ll be strong players? — George R. 

Patrick Mooney: The only fundamental change in the Bellinger dynamics after the trade deadline is that the Cubs can now make him a qualifying offer after the season and receive draft-pick compensation if he signs with another team. Everything else still suggests that the Cubs will be heavily involved in those negotiations, and Bellinger will strongly consider their best offer.

Once the Los Angeles Dodgers non-tendered Bellinger, there was never an expectation that he would sign a multiyear deal or an in-season extension. Bellinger has lived up to his end of the bargain by transforming the lineup, playing Gold Glove defense in center field, moving to first base when needed and energizing the clubhouse with his confidence.

Bellinger also recognizes that the Cubs have helped put him in a position to succeed. The same soft factors that helped sell Bellinger on joining the Cubs last offseason — trusted hitting coaches, a training complex close to his Arizona home, their reputation as a player-centric organization — are still in place. Going to work at Wrigley Field during a playoff race is also more compelling than listening to the recruiting pitch on Zoom or watching a hype video.

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“Our environment is a benefit for everybody,” Hoyer said. “As a player, you come here on a Tuesday, Wednesday night, the place is packed and there’s great energy. It’s a great place to live. It’s a great ballpark. Who wouldn’t want to play here? That’s been pretty consistent for a while now. I think it’s a great environment for Cody. I think it’s a great environment for a lot of guys.”

Cody Bellinger celebrates with Mike Tauchman and Dansby Swanson. (Quinn Harris / Getty Images)

Whether they play their way into the playoffs or not, the Cubs will obviously have some holes to fill for next season. Do you think they will make a determined run at re-signing Bellinger? What other needs do you see them addressing during the coming offseason? — David T. 

Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki have full no-trade clauses. With Pete Crow-Armstrong in the wings, where would Bellinger fit next year? — Phil F. 

Sahadev Sharma: The way David Ross talks about him, I don’t think worrying about where Bellinger would fit is much of a concern. Ross has been asked in every way possible how important Bellinger is to this team and he’s been clear that he’s essential to their success.

“Putting the lineup on his back is kind of what he does,” Ross said. “He’s been in the middle of that order driving in runs, putting it in the seats. The Belli story is our offense kind of goes as he goes. He’s just really, really important.”

It’s not just Ross. Hoyer isn’t hiding the fact that Bellinger is wanted around long term with the Cubs.

“As good as it’s been for him, it’s been better for us,” Hoyer said. “He’s been the centerpiece of this run we’ve had for the last six to eight weeks. He’s been amazing. As I’ve said, he knows how we feel about him. We’d love to keep him here. He’s been a great fit for us, and he’s a great fit in the clubhouse for us. We’ll see.”

Left-handed power is just not easy to find. The Cubs have Owen Caissie at Double A right now, but do they really want to rely on him to impact a team when the clear goal is to take this to another level in 2024 and beyond? I doubt that very much. It’s also a risk to wait for the next free-agent class (which potentially includes Juan Soto and Pete Alonso) because of the possibility an extension is signed (Rafael Devers is a perfect example from last winter).

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So yes, it seems as if it’s almost a certainty the Cubs will try to bring Bellinger back in the winter. Where does he fit? That’s for Ross to figure out. But if I had to guess, they probably have Crow-Armstrong in center to start the season to try and get the extra draft pick that they receive if he wins Rookie of the Year or finishes top three in MVP voting.

So Bellinger at first, perhaps center against lefties, and spelling Suzuki and/or Happ in the corners as needed? This is mostly just speculation of course. In the end, fans shouldn’t worry too much about where Bellinger fits defensively. He’s versatile and while he may want to be paid like a center fielder, he’ll bring the team tremendous offensive value anywhere.

What other moves make sense? That really depends on what they do with Kyle Hendricks’ team option and what Marcus Stroman does with his player option. A trade for a starting pitcher makes sense no matter what, and adding another pitcher via free agency would make a lot of sense as well if Hendricks and/or Stroman don’t return. Relief depth is always needed and bringing back Jeimer Candelario (or somehow filling the hole at third) should be a priority as well.

How big of a contract do you think Bellinger will get in the offseason? Over/under: $200 million. — Ryan M. 

Mooney: One baseline for Boras will be the eight-year, $162 million contract he negotiated for Brandon Nimmo with the New York Mets. Nimmo is a solid two-way center fielder who hits left-handed, gets on base and handles the New York spotlight. Nimmo cashed in after answering the questions about his durability and taking advantage of Steve Cohen’s largesse.

Nimmo, however, turned 30 just before this year’s Opening Day while Bellinger won’t reach his 30th birthday until around the 2025 All-Star break. Bellinger’s resume is also superior as Nimmo has never earned a Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger or an All-Star selection. Nimmo’s career high in home runs (18 so far this year) is less than half of Bellinger’s power output from his Rookie of the Year (39) and MVP (47) seasons.

Some skepticism will linger after Bellinger’s dramatic fall with the Dodgers. Only a handful of franchises will truly engage with Boras on a free agent of this magnitude. Within that group, the Cubs will not be one of the teams with its billionaire owner front and center in the negotiations. Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts does not have a working relationship with Boras, and the latitude that ownership gives its baseball operations department is largely a positive.

You never know. The Cubs could put together an enhanced offer that builds off the Nimmo deal but comes in beneath $200 million and they might consider that to be a highly competitive offer. But as the last Winter Meetings showed, all it takes is one owner to blow away expectations. As always, it will come down to: Do you want to be rational or do you want to sign the player?

Will the Cubs go after Shohei Ohtani in the offseason? — Tommy W.

Cubs fans are in a lather thinking about Ohtani’s free agency, but he already turned them down once. Why did he turn them down? (I don’t believe money had anything to do with it.) And why would it be different this time? — Jerry K. 

Sharma: Entering last offseason, Hoyer had a vision of 2024 or 2025 being a time when the Cubs would be clear World Series contenders. For it to be 2024, they needed progress at both the major- and minor-league levels. That’s happened. They’re contending for a playoff spot with obvious building blocks for the future and their system has emerged as a near-consensus top-five group in baseball.

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Hoyer has been patient and has been forceful in his desire for “intelligent spending.” But he also believes in being aggressive at the right time. That time appears to be approaching soon. Does that mean re-signing Bellinger and adding multiple other pieces this winter and even next? Or is Ohtani the prize he’s been waiting for?

The most likely outcome here is the Cubs do their due diligence. They’re a big-market club playing in a desirable city with a fanbase that shows up and supports its team at one of the crown jewel ballparks. And now they’re a contender as well. They can attract any player if they’re willing to spend.

Ohtani didn’t choose the Cubs for a few reasons last time: money (yes, it was a factor, even if it wasn’t the primary one and the Cubs were limited in their international spending at the time), location and the lack of DH. Two of those factors obviously aren’t an issue anymore. But Ohtani has been clear with his preference to stay on the West Coast. Still, that the Cubs were among the finalists was seen as a big win for them. This is a different era with different leaders, but a strong case could be made for the Cubs being the best destination.

It feels as though in the end the Cubs will come up short here. The Dodgers, Mariners and Giants feel like the early favorites, maybe in that order, and the New York teams will surely get a mention even if it’s merely for leverage purposes. But the Cubs will certainly be mentioned this winter. In the end, bringing back Bellinger and adding via trades and other signings seems like a far more likely outcome for the Cubs.

(Top photo of Cody Bellinger: Sam Navarro / USA Today)

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